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YouGov sets out methodology for British election model

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A failure to build on the working majority of 17 that the Conservatives won at the last election would be a major blow for May just as she embarks on the Brexit process

Her decision to hold the ballot early, despite having consistently ruled out a "snap" out-of-cycle election, was seen as a bid to bolster the government's majority as it went into Brexit negotiations.

They are now on course to win 310 seats at the election - short of an absolute majority of 326 seats needed to form a Government.

The Pound Sterling edged up versus the US Dollar as investors dismissed the latest opinion polls which showed a narrowing lead between Theresa May, the Prime Minister, and the Labour party candidate.

The YouGov poll put the Conservatives on 42 percent, down one point from a comparable poll released May 27, and Labour on 39 percent, up three points, the Times' deputy political editor said in a tweet.

Sterling fell around 2 per cent last week after polls showed the Conservatives' lead over Labour had shrunk from as much as 20 points in April.

The poll highlighted the damage done to the support for the Conservative Party over plans on social care of older people: the government had said that the elderly would have to pay the full cost of their care, whether or not they stayed at home or in a care home, until they were down to their last £1,00,000 of asset.

The ICM poll showed 53 percent of Britons thought May handled the situation well. YouGov's election model was based on voting intention figures which gave May a lead of just 3 percentage points, YouGov said.

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Ed Miliband, the former Labour leader, who suffered a disastrous result at the 2015 election despite predictions of a hung parliament, replied to the research on Twitter.

"Support for Labour among younger voters has gone up and gone up dramatically but then the crucial question is whether these young people will come out to vote", Curtice said.

The polling organisation said the model, developed by its data science team and London School of Economics Professor Ben Lauderdale, employed a technique called multilevel regression and post-stratification analysis to estimate the result in individual constituencies.

Despite most media writing off Jeremy Corbyn and hostile press coverage, a popular Labour manifesto has helped his party close the gap with the Conservatives rather than strengthen May's majority.

Jim Messina, a polling and data adviser for the Conservative Party who worked on Barack Obama's campaign, said the YouGov numbers were stupid and that he had spent the day laughing at them.

The Times offers a health warning with the polls: it has big variations and suggests that the Tories could get as many as 345 seats on a good night, up 15 MPs.

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