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India's Retail Inflation Hits Seven Month-High In October, Says Report

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Food price inflation climbed to 1.90 percent from 1.25 percent. Similarly, rural inflation rose to 3.3 per cent from September's 3.15 per cent and August's 3.22 per cent, and urban inflation has gone up to 3.81 per cent as compared to 3.44 per cent in September and 3.35 per cent in August.

India's inflation accelerated more-than-expected in October after holding steady in the previous month, preliminary data from the Central Statistics Office showed Monday. Prices of milk and egg increased modestly and fruit and fish prices came down marginally.

India's retail inflation picked up in October to a seven-month high, driven by faster rises in prices of food and fuel products, dampening chances of an interest rate cut by the central bank next month. "Whether this transpires into a rate cut or not would depend on the central bank's intent to utilize the plus or minus 2 percent band (around its 4 percent target)". Moreover, the pass-through of the goods and services tax (GST) to final prices of various goods and services may not be complete.

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"We continue to expect an extended pause amid non-unanimous voting by the MPC (Monetary Policy Committee) in the December 2017 policy review", said Aditi Nayar, principal economist at rating company ICRA Ltd. On a sequential basis, core inflation slowed to 0.47 percent from 0.68 percent in the prior month.

However, on a year-on-year (YoY) basis, the CPI inflation last month was lower than 4.20 per cent recorded in October 2016. However, there is a risk that a surge in crude oil prices and recent softness in the Indian rupee might affect the imported inflation component.

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