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Demand for oil to drop

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Crude oil is extracted from the Monterey Shale formation near Bakersfield California

"The US becomes the undisputed leader for oil and gas production for decades, which represents a major upheaval for global market dynamics", said Dr Fatih Birol, IEA's executive director.

That will keep prices down and help make the U.S. a net exporter of oil - in addition to gas - by the late 2020s.

The International Energy Agency estimates that consumption of petroleum will shrink in Brazil – to 3.15 million barrels per day in 2018 – as well as worldwide.

"Solar is forging ahead in global power markets as it becomes the cheapest source of electricity generation in many places, including China and India", said Fatih Birol, the IEA's executive director. "There's big growth coming from shale oil, and as such there'll be a big difference between the US and other producers". Forecasts for shale-oil output in 2025 were bolstered by 34% to 9 MMbpd.

"Yet this is precisely what is happening as a result of the US shale revolution - both for oil and for natural gas", the IEA said.

Crude has climbed lately to a two-year high around $57 United States a barrel in trading in NY, although it is not seen making much larger gains due to rising USA output. It's taken the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and Russian Federation nearly 11 months of production cuts to clear up some of the oversupply.

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São Paulo - Global demand for oil is poised to drop this and next year due to a hike in prices, as per projections issued this Tuesday (14) by the International Energy Agency (IEA). The world will use just over 100 MMbopd by 2025.

"Even with the extraordinary move to a net export position, the health of the US energy economy remains intricately linked with those of its neighbors in North America and with choices made by countries further afield", the group said. That "will bring a lot of dollars to USA business".

Sparked by technological advances from its shale fields, USA production will see growth of 8M bbl/day during 2010-25, accounting for 80% of the increase in global supply over the period, the report says. The cartel, led by Middle East producers, will see its share of the market grow to 46% in 2040 from 43% now.

"These changes brighten the prospects for affordable, sustainable energy and require a reappraisal of approaches to energy security", the agency said.

If US production stays at current levels, the IEA said, and a trend towards adopting electric cars accelerates, prices could stay between US$50 and US$70 a barrel until 2040.

The largest disruptive force on the supply front will be the United States, the IEA said.

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