Crude oil shrugs off rising United States production as Brent nears $80/barrel
May 17 2018 by Johnny Bowman
These risks, including the re-imposition of oil sanctions against Iran, and the upcoming results of May elections in Venezuela, may materialise into actions that remove oil supplies from the global market, and in turn, tighten global oil balances.
The IEA is anxious that we will see demand destruction because of higher oil prices.
Oil prices fell on Wednesday, weighed down by ample supplies despite ongoing output cuts by producer cartel OPEC and looming US sanctions against major crude exporter Iran.
This was to spur U.S. domestic oil production, particularly shale resources, and anything else that can "wean" the United States from foreign oil imports. Current conditions-with geopolitical unrest, unplanned supply outages, thin spare capacity, and rising demand-mirror the state of affairs in 2008 and 2011, when prices rallied into triple-digit territory. West Texas Intermediate, the USA benchmark, was down 0.67 percent to $70.83 per barrel.
If the U.S. were to force that amount of oil off the market again, it could turn a fast-shrinking surplus into a shortage and send prices higher and destabilise the careful balance of supply and demand that both Saudi Arabia and Russian Federation are trying to achieve. In fact, the oil price rose along with demand until we saw a separation from that relationship as the mortgage crisis developed.
Oil prices have surged about 75 percent since last June, and "it would be extraordinary if such a large jump did not affect demand growth", the IEA said, noting the effect of higher prices could become apparent in gasoline demand in the next few months.
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A survey of 11 analysts showed Brent crude prices were likely to average $71.22 a barrel this year and $71.26 in 2019, a sharp increase from the $67.40 and $66.39-per-barrel levels forecast in the April poll.
At what point will demand be negatively impacted by higher prices?
In its May report, OPEC (of which Iran is a member) put Iran's daily production at 3.82 million barrels a day, according to both first and secondary sources, making it the third largest OPEC producer and potentially making any supply loss a challenge.
The general public has starting feeling the pinch in their wallet as the oil prices have now climbed to five-years high and are unlikely to go down anytime soon. The reason why this irks me is that many people look to this forecast to make designs about investing and their past doom and gloom about demand probably led to less energy investment that was needed to feed growing global oil demand. The country is the Iran's second-biggest buyer of crude after China. The call on OPEC crude and stockpiles will average around 32.25 million barrels a day for the remainder of 2018, about 600,000 higher than April output.
For the fifth straight month, OPEC in March set a fresh record for complying with its agreed oil-production cuts, with the goal of re-balancing the market finally in sight.
Distillate fuel product supplied averaged about 4.2 million barrels per day over the last four weeks, up by 3.0 percent from the same period a year ago. The high price of Brent is attracting USA exports.